Industry study
The study explores the future of the dairy industry, focusing on sustainability and the increasing importance of animal-free dairy. It outlines key projections for 2040, offering essential insights into the evolving landscape of both traditional and animal-free dairy, making it a valuable resource for decision-makers in the sector.
A strategic, data-backed view of where traditional and animal-free dairy are headed by 2040 – and what it means for corporate strategy today.
In this study
How internalizing environmental costs will reshape the cost structure and competitiveness of traditional dairy.
Projected retail price shifts between animal-free and traditional dairy by 2040, and how they’ll drive consumer demand.
Which new market leaders are emerging in the rapidly expanding animal-free dairy sector.
Why sustainability is now a strategic imperative across the entire dairy value chain.
The regulatory and technological momentum making animal-free dairy an increasingly viable solution.
Strategic options for dairy leaders, and why timely action is critical to staying competitive.
A few of the numbers behind the 2040 dairy transition:
10%
higher cost of goods sold for cow’s milk vs. plant-based milk in 2040, due to environmental costs
25%
growth in plant-based milk consumption in Europe between 2020 and 2022
~30%
lower carbon footprint per liter of oat and soy milk today vs. the most ambitious 2040 cow’s milk targets
“This report is a must-read for industry leaders who want to understand the future dairy landscape and make informed strategic decisions. The next decade will see rapid changes in the dairy sector. The time to act is now – leaders who embrace sustainability will steer the industry toward a brighter, more resilient future.”
Floor Buitelaar
Founder, Bright Green Partners
BGP offers strategy and investment advisory consulting to support corporates and investors in sustainable food, including business strategy, go-to-market strategy, innovation program strategy, and technical and commercial due diligence.
Cow’s milk in Europe currently emits roughly 1.0 kg CO2eq per liter of skimmed milk, versus roughly 0.4 kg for oat milk and 0.3 kg for soy milk – on par with or better than the most ambitious 2040 cow’s milk targets of ~0.5 kg. Precision fermentation is expected to push this even lower, toward ~0.1 kg.
The study compares cow’s milk, soy milk, oat milk, and precision-fermentation milk per liter, and expects further research on fortification and production methods to close the nutritional gap with limited added climate impact.
Four technologies: plant-based, precision fermentation, molecular farming, and cell cultivation. Only plant-based is fully on the market today; precision fermentation is just emerging in the US and Singapore.
Meeting climate and environmental targets will require significant on-farm capital investment with little direct financial upside for farmers, making mandatory environmental cost accounting likely – which could nearly double the true cost of milk versus today’s shelf price.
Bright Green Partners is the global strategy consultancy in AgriFood Tech. We envision a food system where profit, planet and people thrive in a sustainable balance, and we help the largest corporates and investors make that transition. We combine top-tier consulting with the deep expertise of our exclusive 2500+ global expert network – across strategy, M&A advisory, and due diligence – for clients like Ajinomoto and Kraft Heinz throughout the agrifood value chain.
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the future of the EU sustainable dairy market, focusing on sustainability strategies and the growing potential of animal-free dairy for corporate leaders.
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