The 2040 EU Sustainable Dairy Landscape: Corporate Transition in Traditional and Animal-Free Dairy

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While dairy companies are actively reducing their environmental impact and many aim to be net zero by 2050, they still fall short of animal-free environmental performance. Currently, cow’s milk in Europe emits ~1.0 kg of CO 2 eq per liter of skimmed milk compared to Oatly’s oat milk at ~0.4kg CO 2 eq per liter and Alpro’s soy milk at ~0.3kg CO 2 eq per liter. This is equal or more sustainable to the most ambitious cow’s milk targets of ~0.5kg CO 2 eq per liter. Precision fermentation is set to improve the carbon footprint even further with a ~0.1kg CO 2 eq per liter target. Additionally, dairy cows on average require significantly more water, and land and cause more eutrophication, further increasing their environmental footprint.

The report compares cow’s milk, soy milk, oat milk, and milk from precision fermentation on a per-liter basis. It acknowledges the nutritional differences among these products but expects that with further research on product fortification and improved production processes this gap can be closed with
limited climate impact. The report also calls for more research to establish a true Nutritient Density of Climate Impact index that considers both the impact per nutrient and the role these products play in the broader Western diet.

Animal-free dairy can be made using four different technologies: plant-based, precision fermentation, molecular farming, and cell cultivation. Currently, only plant-based dairy is fully available on the market. Precision fermentation products are just starting to appear in the US and Singapore, while the other technologies are still being developed.

These new methods could offer significant advantages over traditional animal and plant-based dairy, such as better nutrition, improved melt and stretch qualities, and reduced land and water usage, enhancing overall sustainability. The success of these technologies depends on four main factors: i) Regulation, ii) Ingredient performance, iii) Consumer acceptance, iv) Techno-economics ,and v) Price.

Dairy has been an integral component of our global food system for centuries. However, as economies around the world face mounting pressure to reduce their carbon footprint, the environmental impact of dairy production is coming under increased scrutiny. To achieve the Paris agreement goal of limiting the rise in global temperatures to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, all industries including dairy will need to significantly reduce their carbon emissions. Additionally, to reach UN sustainable development goals such as safeguarding waters and ecosystems, new technologies and practices will need to be implemented.

Implementing on-farm technologies that lower these environmental impacts will require significant capital expenditure and often provides no direct financial benefit to farmers. Achieving these targets will therefore be challenging without financial incentives in the form of mandatory environmental costs. Research suggests that the true cost of milk, which accounts for all environmental costs, could be nearly double its current shelf price.