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BGP Expert Talk
In this BGP Expert Talk, Floor Buitelaar, Managing Partner at Bright Green Partners, speaks with Tony Hunter, a leading food futurist, scientist, and strategic foresight consultant with decades of experience. Known for his expertise in food, beverage, and agriculture, Tony provides a unique perspective on where the agri-food industry is heading. Their discussion covers foresighting, consumer trends, and major shifts anticipated in food production and development.
Tony opens by emphasizing that foresighting is less about predicting the future and more about identifying “signals of change” that reveal potential shifts in the food system’s trajectory. These signals suggest that the global food system of 2050 will be vastly different from today’s. With “alternative futures” as possibilities, foresighting allows companies to anticipate and prepare for multiple outcomes. This approach equips companies to handle disruptions, helping them develop strategies that keep them competitive regardless of how the future unfolds.
Exploring future scenarios helps companies make strategic decisions today, even if these futures seem distant. Tony explains that “backcasting”, working backward from a potential future vision, reveals the steps, resources, and strategies necessary to reach it. By establishing adaptable core strategies, companies can respond to evolving industry trends and make timely decisions, staying ahead of competitors.
Tony identifies two transformative trends shaping agri-food tech: personalization and the rise of Generation Alpha. Personalization is now integral to our lives, from Netflix recommendations to loyalty programs, and soon, consumers will demand the same tailored experience in their food choices. He anticipates that personalization in food will become essential to meet consumer expectations around health and wellness.
Generation Alpha, born between 2010 and 2024, represents another significant trend. Expected to number 2 billion by the end of the year, they are not only digital natives but also “technology natives.” Growing up with innovations like robotics, mRNA vaccines, and generative artificial intelligence, this generation will likely embrace food technology seamlessly, profoundly influencing the future food system.
Tony foresees a major transformation in the product development cycle for food companies. Traditionally, bringing a new product from concept to market could take 18 months or longer. However, as technology accelerates, this timeline could shrink to as little as 18 weeks. This accelerated cycle will require companies to become more agile, with faster decision-making, leaner development processes, and rapid testing to keep pace.
Tony explains that this shift demands that companies rethink how they approach prototyping, testing, and consumer feedback, making speed a competitive advantage. Those that can quickly adapt will be better positioned to capture emerging consumer trends, meeting demands and maintaining relevance in an increasingly dynamic market.
Sustainability is a driving factor for the future of food systems, with Tony emphasizing the need to conserve fresh water and arable land. As global freshwater supplies continue to diminish, technologies that reduce water use or enable recycling will be highly valuable. Companies that prioritize resource efficiency not only support sustainable practices but also gain a competitive advantage as resource scarcity becomes more pressing.
“No one can predict the future. There are many possible futures, which means flexibility and agility are essential. When planning ahead, forget the usual three- or five-year approach where you just tack on another year. You have to look longer term, and ten years is a great timeframe. When you ask people what they’ll be doing in ten years, they often respond, ‘I’m not really sure.’ But ask them about next year, next month, or next week, and they’re far more certain. That ten-year view opens up the mind to new possibilities.
In line with this, it’s important to remember that people think linearly—one week is one week, one year is one year—but technology progresses exponentially. So, where people might expect steady progress—1, 2, 3, 4, 5—technology advances at a rate like 2, 4, 8, 16, 32. This makes it dangerous to plan in a linear way in an exponential world. Organizations need to adopt an exponential, rather than a linear, mindset,” Tony says.
Tony concludes on an optimistic note, emphasizing his belief in technology's potential to address global challenges, including feeding a growing population. “One thing to remember,” he says, “you cannot solve today’s problems with yesterday’s technologies.” For him, embracing technological innovation is key to navigating the future of food. Tony believes that this is the most exciting time in decades for the food industry, especially for those prepared to lead with forward-thinking solutions.
Are you prepared to position your business at the forefront of the sustainable food industry? Connect with Floor Buitelaar, Managing Partner at Bright Green Partners, to explore how we can craft a tailored strategy that aligns with your company’s objectives. Don’t wait for the market to evolve—take proactive steps now to lead in innovation and sustainability.
